Where do the projections come from?
Derek Carty has developed THE BAT over the past 10+ years and 10,000+ hours, using skills and methods developed from his time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for championship-winning MLB clubs. THE BAT incorporates all the necessary basics, like park factors and platoon splits, plus many lesser-considered factors like air density and umpires to give you an edge on the competition. And starting in 2020, it began using Statcast data with the launch of THE BAT X! Over the past two years, THE BAT X has been the most accurate standalone projection system in fantasy baseball according to studies at FanGraphs and FantasyPros.
What are your records?
We're currently working on a robust results table, however, we offer data tools that can be used to make more educated bets and save time. We don't sell picks, only projections. The projections can change throughout the day and based on new information (starting lineups, umpire, weather, and more). As such, maintaining results for every projection change versus the odds against every sportsbook, and every betting market, at that moment of a projection change would be too much to display. We could sell picks that beat the markets... however, selling picks is difficult to scale because odds move and not everyone can get a pick at the same odds.
We realize people value transparency and are looking for some assurance that the data tools we provide offer value. What we can say is that THE BAT and THE BLITZ have stellar reputations within the sports analytics community. They are driven by highly sophisticated methodology like what is used by pro sports clubs. They frequently test among the best systems available in third-party studies. And they are continually being backtested and upgraded to ensure the quality remains as high as possible. We've used them ourselves along with smart sports betting acumen to beat the markets over a long period of time. And we've received countless messages from users who have had the same experience.
All of that being said, projections are not strict "answers to a test," and although they are extremely useful and valuable, long-term results often aren't guaranteed to hold up over a small sample size due to the nature of variance. There will be periods where the projections run hot, and periods where they run cold, even with nothing changing in the process or in the long-term expectation. Just because a projection is high and a player's result is low, doesn't mean the projection was wrong or inaccurate. This is a probability game, and it's important to maintain the right mindset when betting.
What performs better THE BAT or THE BAT X?
THE BAT has been around for years as one of the most respected projection systems in baseball, but it has always more or less been limited to using traditional statistics that were available at the time of its creation. THE BAT X is a newer system that combines the original version of THE BAT with newer, cutting-edge Statcast data. In theory (and according to back-tests Derek Carty has run and third-party studies), THE BAT X should be superior to THE BAT. It's only been around for a couple seasons, though, (one of which was the COVID-shortened 2020 season) and as such we still display both. The classic version of THE BAT has performed so well over the years that we're not ready to say “This is the new THE BAT” and throw the old projections away. It's also worth noting that, for the time being, THE BAT X only uses Statcast data for hitters. (The pitcher version is still in development.)
How often do the projections change? What causes a projection change?
THE BAT X projections update on a 5-minute loop throughout the day as more and more information becomes available. This includes changes to the projecting batting order, defense, umpires, weather forecast, starting pitcher pitch counts, and more. Most changes to the projections are minor, and on many of the 5-minute loops they won’t change at all. The biggest changes tend to occur once the official lineup is announced or if there is a starting pitcher change. The data table updates anytime a sportsbooks changes their odds or the THE BAT X projections change. All odds and projections get locked at gametime.
When is the best time to make to reference the model and the projections?
The projections are the most accurate right before the game has started, HOWEVER so are the sportsbook odds as they are more efficient after bettors have shaped them. Because opening odds are more inefficient, we recommend reference the model and projections as soon as odds come out. When it comes to MLB it's important to confirm which starting pitchers the model is forecasting versus the listed starting pitchers the Sportsbook shows, otherwise there maybe a large discrepancy between the odds and the projections.
How come there are missing games or projections?
We’re not immune to data issues, however, there are two most likely reasons for the projections table to be missing a game. 1) The sportsbook hasn’t published odds for that game, or 2) The sportsbook has taken those odds offline. Uncertainty associated with a game (e.g. who is scheduled to pitch or play) could be the reason why the odds go offline. If you’re previewing the article on a mobile device and don’t see projections, it may be because your device cannot fit all the table columns. Simple resize or scroll the projections table to view all the column values. If you still don’t see the data table, it’s possible it could be related to your browser or computer firewall, however these issues require more details and troubleshooting.
Can you explain what the implied projection is and how you come up with it?
The implied projection is our innovative method for comparing a player prop's odds versus a player projection. This value is developed internally using our own formulas and models. By comparing the sportsbook's implied projection versus the model's projection, users can more effectively quantify inefficiencies. And because evaluating a betting market's Moneyline or the associated juice of a side can often be difficult for betters to comprehend, we wanted to simplify the process to give users an apples-to-apples comparison. We believe the implied protection helps users save time when shopping for the best price and improves their overall handicapping process.
Our implied projections are averages NOT medians. Therefore the odds may suggest an Under is more likely to occur, however the implied projection may be in fact greater than the Total. See example below:
Over 0.5 Runs @ -100
Under 0.5 Runs @ -130
Implied Projection = 0.56 Runs
In this example, Joe Smith averages 0.56 Runs a game, however he only scores a run in 47% of his games.
Can you explain what the Expected Value is and how you came up with it? And can you provide a numerical version of Expected Value?
On our player prop pages, our Expected Value is a 0-to-5 “Plus” visual depiction of potential value. The more Plus marks, the more potential value we believe that bet offers. You can sort the Expected Value column. Although we provide this column and a suggested side to bet, we are not explicitly telling you to bet it. We want to empower users with data tools that they can use to save time and make more educated bets. As such, we refrain from telling you exactly what to bet and how much, and although our data tools provide valuable insight, we are not specifying which bet has the most value if there are multiple with the same Expected Value “Plus” mark score. This is actually done with the user in mind. Otherwise, if everyone is betting the exact same bets that have the highest numerical Expected Value, the lines would move quickly and only a select few users would get them before they move. Plus, this is a good way to get limited by a sportsbook. As a result, we came up with the “Plus” value system as a better way to present the data. It’s worth noting that anytime you see a betting market with any Plus marks for its Expected Value, the projections believe that betting market offers positive value. And if you could bet that same market over and over again, the projections believe you would end up being profitable over a large sample size. That being said, we encourage users to evaluate all the data and not blindly wager everything that shows Plus EV. Sportsbooks frown upon bettors who bet a ton of volume and betting player props at scale is a good way to flag yourself as a sharp bettor and get limited or cut off, regardless of whether you are up or down.
Can these projections and models make me money?
Historically speaking, yes. However, it’s important to realize that sports betting isn’t just about having a good projection system. Sports betting is a grind where edges are typically small, but these small edges add up over time. Most bettors struggle with the rigors that are associated with this, so to make money using these projections, you must be price-sensitive, able to effectively manage a bankroll and time bets, and withstand roller-coaster like emotions. As such, it’s important to realize sports betting is not for everyone. If you’re looking to make a quick buck, we advise you to look somewhere else… or simply acknowledge that sports betting can be a fun and legal form of entertainment if it’s handled responsibly.
If the system is profitable, why share it with me?
An inconvenient truth for aspiring bettors is that sportsbooks are in business to make money. As such, sportsbooks are quick to restrict sharp action or lower limits on markets that don’t help their bottom line. This creates a glass ceiling for professional bettors who have worked hard to develop profitable models but get limited after showing profitability. At some point the challenge of profitability becomes two-fold. Not only do you have to develop profitable models, but you must find legal outs or sportsbooks that will take your action. This glass ceiling has led to the formation of EV Analytics, a bootstrapped data company that has pivoted its focus to offer valuable and innovative data in the sports betting space. We want to empower fans and companies with valuable data.