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Zonovan Knight

Zonovan Knight Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Zonovan Knight Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-125/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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