Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.0% pass rate.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

Favors Under

Zay Jones has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing game this year (15.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.0%).
Zay Jones's receiving performance has declined this season, totaling a measly 3.0 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last season.
Zay Jones's 57.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 70.3% figure.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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