Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to accumulate 6.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.0% in games he has played).

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