Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-132/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to total 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this year (21.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.8%).

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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