Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-155/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to notch 7.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack this year (21.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.