Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 7th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.