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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Zay Jones has been used less as a potential target this year (91.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (60.1%).

THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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