Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+154/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Zay Jones has been used less as a potential target this year (91.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (60.1%).
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to garner 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Zay Jones's receiving performance has gotten better this season, averaging 5.7 yards per game vs a measly 3.2 last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.8%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.