Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-101/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 7th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Zay Jones has been among the weakest WRs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 17th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the NFL.