Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (+114/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Zay Jones has been used less as a potential target this year (91.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (60.1%).
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to garner 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Zay Jones has notched quite a few more air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.8%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, surrendering 7.14 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.

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