Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to total 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Zay Jones has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (22.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.2%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has posted far fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Zay Jones has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 7.40 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 17th percentile among wide receivers
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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