Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
With an impressive 92.5% Route Participation% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Zay Flowers ranks among the wideouts with the most usage in the league.
In this game, Zay Flowers is projected by the projection model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.8 targets.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.8%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (58.8%).