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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

With a sizeable 91.4% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) last year, Zay Flowers rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

This week, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.3 targets.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

The Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) vs. WRs last year (61.6%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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