Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
In this game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile among wide receivers with 7.7 targets.
Zay Flowers has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 29.0% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Zay Flowers has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 6.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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