Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The model projects Zay Flowers to garner 6.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With an exceptional 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
This year, the tough Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed a puny 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

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