Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -144 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
With a high 91.5% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been as one of the WRs with the most usage in the league.
This week, Zay Flowers is projected by the projection model to slot into the 79th percentile among wide receivers with 7.0 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 27.6 per game) this year.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (51.9%) versus wideouts this year (51.9%).
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cleveland's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.