Zay Flowers Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 25, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 58.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may go down.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (34.8 per game) this year.
This week, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.3 targets.
With a remarkable 25.9% Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places among the WRs with the most usage in the league.
Zay Flowers has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
Zay Flowers's 69.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 75.1% figure.
The Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

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