Zack Moss Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
Zack Moss has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (113.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
While Zack Moss has earned 73.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Indianapolis's running game in this week's contest at 40.2%.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 84.0 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense this year.

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