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Zack Moss

Zack Moss Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Zack Moss Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-766).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +390 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +376.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least TDs in the league (0.83 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.

The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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