Zack Moss Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Zack Moss Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Zack Moss to accrue 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The leading projections forecast Zack Moss to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense in this contest (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Zack Moss has been among the weakest pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile among running backs.
The Rams pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (77.7%) versus running backs since the start of last season (77.7%).