Zack Moss Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a whopping 60.3 per game on average).
Zack Moss has gone out for more passes this year (41.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (18.5%).
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
Zack Moss's 1.8 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a meaningful growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 0.5 figure.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

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