Zack Moss Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to garner 18.9 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Colts are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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