Zack Moss Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 27, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Zack Moss Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to garner 13.3 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (48.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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