Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to use backup QB Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.
Zach Wilson's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 55.9% to 60.6%.
This year, the feeble Broncos defense has been gouged for a monstrous 3.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Denver's collection of CBs has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to run just 61.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Zach Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.4.

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