Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-230/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Zach Wilson's 60.7% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a material improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 55.9% mark.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Zach Wilson has been among the bottom touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrible 0.56 per game while ranking in the 19th percentile.
The Bills cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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