Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-207/+163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Zach Wilson's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 56.0% to 60.3%.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 54.6% red zone pass rate.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the weakest TD passers in the league this year, averaging a paltry 0.67 per game while ranking in the 14th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (64.2%).

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