Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 8th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Zach Wilson's rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 6.75 yards-per-carry compared to just 5.35 rate last season.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.20 yards-per-carry.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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