Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.3% in games he has played).
Zach Wilson's ground efficiency (7.82 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (100th percentile among QBs).
Zach Wilson has been among the best quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.73 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to accumulate 2.6 carries this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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