Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).
Zach Wilson's rushing effectiveness (7.98 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (100th percentile among quarterbacks).
Zach Wilson has been among the best QBs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.96 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 97th percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (145 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 32.1% run rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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