Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1075/-1427).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This year, the formidable Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has conceded a meager 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

At the moment, the most run-centric offense in football in the red zone (52.5% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Eagles.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.8 total plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
The Eagles have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.5 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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