Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+525/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to call 65.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
With an extraordinary 17.0% Red Zone Target Share (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz ranks as one of the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in football.
Zach Ertz has posted a colossal 48.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (51.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.6 plays per game.
With a feeble 69.4% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz places as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to TEs.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.7%) to tight ends since the start of last season (68.7%).

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