Zach Ertz Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+590/-669).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the porous Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded a massive 82.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
Since the start of last season, the tough Bears defense has surrendered a paltry 0.32 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in football. in football.