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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.

Zach Ertz has run a route on 81.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

The Commanders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

With a terrific 3.8 adjusted receptions per game (89th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz places among the best tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.

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