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Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+135).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -177 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +135.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being an enormous -7-point underdog in this game.The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.This week, Zach Ertz is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 88th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.Zach Ertz's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs.Zach Ertz grades out as one of the best pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 28.69 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-slowest in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment.Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.2 per game) since the start of last season.With a lackluster 64.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (11th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.
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