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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

The model projects Zach Ertz to accrue 4.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Zach Ertz's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 93rd percentile for tight ends.

Zach Ertz grades out as one of the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 50.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.

With a poor 64.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to tight ends.

Since the start of last season, the tough Giants defense has given up a meager 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

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