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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 128.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

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