Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are expected by the projection model to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a whopping 58.5 per game on average).
The projections expect Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 19.9% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
With a terrific 4.1 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Zach Ertz has been as one of the top pass-game TEs in the NFL.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Commanders being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 49.9% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
The Tennessee Titans linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.