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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+123/-159).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -159.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by our trusted projection set to call 65.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to garner 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Zach Ertz has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 18.9% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year.

Zach Ertz checks in as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a fantastic 3.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

This year, the formidable Steelers defense has given up a measly 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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