My Account Log Out

reorder

Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.8 per game) last year.

In this week's game, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.

With a sizeable 19.4% Target Rate (92nd percentile) last year, Zach Ertz places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Commanders as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

With a weak 63.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (6th percentile) last year, Zach Ertz rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.

The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.6%) to tight ends last year (68.6%).

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been phenomenal last year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

More Zach Ertz Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™