Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has gone out for fewer passes this season (86.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (73.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (54.9%) versus tight ends this year (54.9%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.