Zach Ertz Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:00 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
Zach Ertz has run a route on 82.2% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.