Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.8 total plays called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
The Eagles have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.5 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Jaguars pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in football.

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