Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

My Account Log Out

reorder

Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2025

Updated Dec 1, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders may throw the ball less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Commanders are a 6-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the projections to land in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.
Zach Ertz has accrued a whopping 46.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 56.9% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 53.9 plays per game.
Zach Ertz's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteable decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 77.2% mark.
Zach Ertz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a significant decrease in his effectiveness in space over last year's 2.9% figure.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.4%) versus TEs this year (66.4%).

More Zach Ertz Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow