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Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.Zach Ertz has run a route on 81.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.Our trusted projections expect Zach Ertz to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.The Commanders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.Zach Ertz has compiled many more adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.After accruing 42.0 air yards per game last season, Zach Ertz has produced significantly fewer this season, currently averaging 31.0 per game.Zach Ertz profiles as one of the worst TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.The Browns pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.96 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
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