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Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.8 per game) last year.

In this week's game, Zach Ertz is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.

With a sizeable 19.4% Target Rate (92nd percentile) last year, Zach Ertz places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Commanders as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

With a weak 63.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (6th percentile) last year, Zach Ertz rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.

Zach Ertz grades out as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a measly 4.51 adjusted yards-per-target last year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.

With a feeble 1.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Zach Ertz places as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league in the open field.

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