Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has gone out for fewer passes this season (86.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (73.2%).

Favors Under

Zach Ertz has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a lowly 5.95 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.
Zach Ertz has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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