Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (85.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (73.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Zach Ertz has put up a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Zach Ertz's receiving efficiency has diminished this season, compiling just 5.67 yards-per-target vs a 6.84 rate last season.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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