Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 25.47 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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