Zach Ertz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Zach Ertz

NFL · Player Props

Zach Ertz

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Colt McCoy in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (88.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (73.2%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Zach Ertz has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a lowly 6.01 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
Zach Ertz has been among the weakest TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.

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